Abstract
On September 30, 2026 the gross debt of Argentina's central administration stood at US$486.6 billion, 51% of it payable in foreign currency, on the Secretaría de Finanzas's monthly bulletin. Of the foreign-currency service due from 2027 to 2035, 79.6% is principal on this paper's sum of the Ministry's schedule of June 30, 2026, so the debt is paid by refinancing while the surplus covers only the coupon. Across 327 sovereign restructurings since 1815 the creditor's loss sits near 40% of present value at the centre and near 75% in Argentina's 2005 exchange. The paper proposes the Sovereign Fund, created by statute, barred from any exposure to the public sector, capitalised by a yearly appropriation of the interest the state no longer pays, and deployed into companies adopting The SAVI Capital Model; converting holders own a senior class of its equity ahead of the Treasury's, with no promised return, and a separate note serves holders who want debt. Two reforms sit around the fund: capital goods at zero applied duty, and an integrity regime written to the limit the Constitution allows. The SAVI Group offers the design, would not manage the fund, and asks for a statute, a term sheet, an enhancement and a pilot tranche.
On its coupons alone, class A is worth 13.9 per 100 of old face at a 2x outcome and 24.9 at 5x, discounted at the bond's own yield, below what the 2005 exchange left at its first prices; a package of the note with an official floor of 50 at fifteen years and class A at 5x is worth 59.6 at 15%, above the 2005 and 2020 outcomes and below the bid of 71.2 on October 21, 2026. The paper promises no return, no recovery and no multiple; a pilot tranche exists to produce the first listed price. The prescription rests on three pillars that stand or fall together: a balanced fiscal policy, the conversion, and the fiscal-load reform of the first paper, the Fifteen Compact. In the record this paper searched, no sovereign has done this, and no earlier conversion was an attempt at it.
Companion to The SAVI Capital Model™: Reform Before Rupture (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23249969), whose Fifteen Compact is the third of the three pillars this paper states together.
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.23703653 · Published 22 October 2026 · Version 1.1 · CC BY 4.0 · Zenodo record
How to cite: Vitagliano, S. (2026). The SAVI Capital Model™: Conversion Before Default. Dollar-denominated public debt, the record of restructuring, and the design of a sovereign fund (Version 1.1). The SAVI Group. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23703653
Third paper of the series: The SAVI Capital Model™ under RIGI: Deployment Before Statute (4 November 2026) designs a private equity fund that deploys the model under Argentina's RIGI today, with the price to the investor stated in advance.
Fourth paper of the series: The SAVI Capital Model™ under RIMI and RIIR: Proof Before Scale (5 November 2026) shows how The SAVI Group would sponsor and run the model itself under Argentina's RIMI, from a first tranche of USD 9 million to USD 200 million, with the price to the investor stated in advance.
Fifth paper of the series: The SAVI Capital Model™ in the Southern Cone: Origination Before Capital (9 November 2026) argues that origination, not capital, is the binding constraint on private investment in the Southern Cone. It publishes the screening standard for private companies in Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay and sets out the structure under which capital of any origin can own them under the Model.
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A proposal for discussion. Not an offer of securities and not advice to any holder.